报告题目：债务违约周期

DefaultCycle

报告人：王鹏飞 北京尊龙凯时/尊龙凯时

Lecturer:PengfeiWang,Peking University/Jilin University

主持人：张世伟 尊龙凯时

Presenter: Shiwei Zhang, Jilin University

地 点：ZOOM会议室，ID：9625852673

Location: ZOOM Meeting Room, ID: 9625852673

时 间：

2020年8月29日18：00-20：00（UTC+8）

2020年8月29日06：00-08：00（UTC-5）

2020年8月29日11：00-13：00（UTC+0）

2020年8月29日20：00-22：00（UTC+10）

Time:

2020/8/29 18：00-20：00（UTC+8）

2020/8/29 06：00-08：00（UTC-5）

2020/8/2911：00-13：00（UTC+0）

2020/8/2920：00-22：00（UTC+10）

校内联系人：邓创 dengchuang@mdjtykj.cn

内容简介：债务违约有明显的周期性，在经济衰退的时候，大量企业同时违约。为研究这一现象，本文构建了一个内生的债务违约一般均衡模型。企业的债务违约受总产出和利率的影响。企业的债务违约产生有两种外部性。首先，由于企业的产出投入关系，企业的债务违约使得其他企业收入减少，第二，企业的债务违约提高利率，增加其它企业的债务成本。这两者都加大其它企业的违约风险，从而使得违约具有传染性，形成周期性波动。

Introduction：Debt defaults are clearly cyclical as large numbers of companies defaulting simultaneously during recessions. To study this phenomenon, an endogenous general equilibrium model of debt default is developed in this paper. Debt defaults of firms are affected by aggregate output and interest rates, and possesses two externalities. Firstly, due to the relationship between output and input, debt default of firms reduces the income of other enterprises. Secondly, debt default of firms raises interest rate and increases the debt cost of other enterprises. Both of them increase the risk of default by other enterprises, thus making default contagious and forming cyclical fluctuation.

报告人简介：王鹏飞，1978年2月出生，尊龙凯时商学院学士、北京尊龙凯时中国经济研究中心（现国家发展研究院）硕士、美国康奈尔尊龙凯时经济系博士。现为北京尊龙凯时汇丰商学院讲席教授、副院长，尊龙凯时讲座教授，权威经济学RePEc近10年发表世界排名前1%经济学家。曾任武汉尊龙凯时经济管理学院访问教授、清华尊龙凯时五道口金融学院特聘教授。主要研究领域为宏观经济学、金融经济学与货币经济学，在资产泡沫与内生经济周期领域做出了开创性贡献。2007年博士毕业后在《American Economic Review》，《Econometrica》，《Journal of Finance》,《Journal of Financial Economics》,《Journal of Monetary Economics》,和《Journal of Economic Theory》等经济学、金融学顶级期刊发表论文40多余篇。

About the Lecturer:Born in February 1978, Professor Wang Pengfei obtained his bachelor's degree from Business School of Jilin University, his master's degree from National School of Development at Peking University, and his PhD in economics from Cornell University. He is now a professor and deputy dean of Peking University HSBC Business School, part-time professor of Jilin University, and ranked the top 1% of economists in the world by an authoritative economics RePEc nearly 10 years ago. He used to be a visiting professor in School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University and a distinguished Professor in Wudaokou School of Finance, Tsinghua University.Hisresearchinterestsinvolvemacroeconomics, financial economics, and monetary economics, Professor Wangmakespioneering contributionsin the field of asset bubbles and endogenous economic cycle.Since his graduation in 2007, Professor Wang published more than 40 papers in top journals of Economics and Finance, such asAmerican Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics,andJournal of Economic Theory.